Stats Flips: Flames Enter Basement Dweller Territory Following UFA Sell-Off

March 7 was a compelling experience for those who follow the Calgary Flames. 

The team had already impressed themselves on March 2 with a win in their first game of the post-Chris Tanev Era with a 4-3 comeback win over the Pittsburgh Penguins.  

The next challenge?  

Find a way to beat the Tampa Bay Lightning without the services of defensive mainstay Noah Hanifin, who had been traded the day prior to the Golden Knights for a first-round pick in the 2026 NHL Draft, defenseman Daniil Miromanov and a conditional third-round pick in the 2025 draft. 

Gone was head coach Ryan Huska’s go-to shutdown pair. A reliable source of puck retrievals and zone exits. A collective 23 NHL seasons of experience. A team-leading 743.4 of time on ice at even strength in which the Flames outscored opposing teams 35-25.  

Thrust into increased deployment were Brayden Pachal (21:22 of ice time), Joel Hanley (17:42), MacKenzie Weegar (27:10), who all recorded personal highs for single-game time on ice.  

The result? A 6-3 win, and a shot of hope that the Flames may not skip too much of a beat without their best pairing.  

Whether it was the prospect of change adding some much-needed adrenaline, that it was game one of a road trip, or the simple fact that any pro team can steal a win on any given night, the Flames surged past the Lightning via a three-goal third period.  

It may be that some of those contributing factors on March 7 have worn off.  

The Post-Tanifin Era – March 6 and On 

Since the official departure of the power duo, the Flames have gone on two extended losing streaks within the last 11 games. A 4-8-0 record without Hanifin translates to a .333 points percentage. The group has been outscored 33-47.  

2.75 goals per game ranks them 21st over that span. 3.92 goals against per game ranks them 25th, or seventh worst.  

The group has allowed the third most even strength goals in that time with 32. The Sharks and Penguins are the only teams to allow more.  

These are the numbers of a team likely to pick in the top ten.  

[Chris Tanev Trade Perfectly On-Brand for General Manager Craig Conroy]

The Flames have seemingly developed a boom-or-bust nature. Zero games in the Post-Tanifin Era have been decided by one goal. Three of the Flames’ four wins during this era have been by three goals. Five of their eight losses have been by three goals. 

You can make a case that the current meta of pulling your goalie early contributes to those results, five empty net goals over that time helps that case, but the other teams losing by three goals that often (Seattle, Arizona, San Jose, Anaheim) all populate the bottom of the standings. In terms of two-goal losses, the Flames sit tied with the Devils and Ducks for the most at three. 

Special Teams 

The team ranked 4th in the NHL with a 83.4% penalty kill rate up to March 6. Since Noah’s departure, the team ranks 26th with a 74.2% survival rate while down a man.  

The Flames have put up better results on the powerplay since March 6, but that appears to have little to do with Noah Hanifin.  

Since his trade the team has eight goals in 36 opportunities, or a 22.2% conversion rate. The PP% when Hanifin ran the first unit for 11 games between Feb. 6-Mar. 6? 18%. 

The issue there is that Hanifin did fine with that unit. He had two goals and two assists which ranked him second on the team in power play scoring. The fact that Rasmus Andersson and Mackenzie Weegar had a collective three assists running the second unit over those 11 outings explains more about that 18% than Hanifin’s departure does.  

Silver Linings 

It’s no easy task to pick out positives from a 4-8-0 streak where the team has seen noticeable statistical declines in most standard metrics. Obviously, you can look at this list of assets brought back in the two trades as a start.  

D – Daniil Miromanov
D – Artem Grushnikov
2024 second round pick
2026 first round pick
Conditional 2026 third round pick. 
Conditional 2025 third round pick 

Not bad, particularly considering that the first rounder from Vegas isn’t lottery-protected.  

[Daniil Miromanov Already Breaking Personal Records With Calgary Flames]

One more positive? Three of the Flames four Post-Tanifin wins have been over playoff contenders. Tampa, Vegas, and LA.

The fourth came against Montreal during a short two-win break between losing streaks. It appears that the Flames still have held onto that aspect of their identity. They can still go head-to-head with the league’s best.  

One more? The Calgary Flames have been exciting to watch despite the poor results. Games may eventually turn, but the team is playing high speed transition hockey. Players appear to be having fun on this ice, which is a positive change given their miserable 2022-2023 campaign. In terms of fans hoping for a high pick, that’s having your cake and eating it, too.  

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